SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could reopen the IPO market—or drain it

SpaceX’s confidential IPO filing has Wall Street abuzz about a reopening for high-growth tech debuts, with OpenAI and Anthropic also looming in the wings. Despite the hype, the IPO market that awaits them looks nothing like 2021’s stampede.

In Q1 2026, private markets went into overdrive while the exit window stayed selective. New Crunchbase data shows investors poured about $300 billion into roughly 6,000 startups globally in the quarter, up more than 150% both quarter over quarter and year over year. According to the report, it was the biggest quarter for venture on record. 

“AI is driving this whole venture investment cycle. So it’s completely dominated,” Gené Teare, research lead at Crunchbase, told Fortune. She noted that around 50% of global capital went to AI in 2025. That share jumped to about 80% in Q1 2026, powered by giant financings for OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI.

Q1’s capital was heavily skewed to the top of the stack. Late-stage funding more than tripled year over year—reaching $246.6 billion across 584 deals in Q1—with $235 billion funneled into just 158 rounds of $100 million or more. The Crunchbase Unicorn Board now includes roughly 1,700 companies. But, according to Teare, only around 40 of those have raised new funding or valuations since the beginning of 2024, leaving about 60% still priced off an earlier cycle. Teare said the market is “between two worlds”: highly valued SaaS-era unicorns that look ready on revenue but can’t convincingly prove AI-driven growth, and “new native AI companies” posting huge early numbers but still too early and volatile for the public markets.

The backdrop for this standoff is........

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