There are now nearly 50% more home sellers than buyers as mismatch widens to a record 630,000. But it’s only a buyer’s market if you can afford it

Home buyers have gained even more leverage over sellers as housing market supply continues to overwhelm tepid demand.

In February, there were 46.3% more sellers than buyers, representing a gap of 629,808, the largest in Redfin’s records going back to 2013, the real estate company said in a report on Monday.

The latest number is up 30% from a year earlier, when the mismatch was 449,409. And recently as October, it was 528,769 people.

According to Redfin, a buyer’s market is when there are over 10% more sellers than buyers. And by this definition, buyers have held the advantage since May 2024.

That came after the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in four decades, sending mortgage rates higher as central bankers scrambled to bring down inflation.

The result was a sharp unwinding of the seller’s market that saw home prices and sales boom in the aftermath of the COVID pandemic.

But even though the Fed began reducing rates two years ago, the housing market has largely been frozen as the “lock-in effect” prevented homeowners with low mortgage rates from putting their properties up for sale. The tight supply also lifted home prices, adding to the spiraling housing affordability crisis.

President Donald Trump’s Iran war has only made things worse. Fears that high oil prices will accelerate inflation while more defense spending widens the deficit have spiked Treasury yields, lifting borrowing costs throughout the economy.

That includes mortgage rates, which have jumped to their highest levels since October. With homeownership now even more expensive, mortgage application volume plunged 10.5% last week from the prior week. That’s an ominous sign for the upcoming spring selling season.

“Of course, it’s only a buyer’s market for those who can afford to buy,” Redfin pointed out. “High housing costs and economic uncertainty have caused many house hunters to retreat, creating an imbalance of buyers and sellers.”

The number of homebuyers in the fell 2.4% month over month in February to about 1.36 million. Meanwhile, the number of sellers dipped just 0.4% to an estimated 1.99 million.

The strongest buyer’s market last month was Miami, where sellers outnumbered buyers by 163%. That was followed by Nashville (120%), Austin (112%), West Palm Beach (110%) and San Antonio (104%).

After many Sun Belt cities saw an influx of people during the remote-work heyday of the pandemic, builders rushed to add more supply. But the affordability crisis has weighed on demand, leaving many cities with a hangover of excess supply.

In another indication of how much the housing market favors buyers, a separate batch of Redfin data showed canceled contracts hit a record high for February.

More than 42,000 U.S. home-sale agreements fell through last month, or 13.7% of homes that went under contract, marking the highest February share in records dating back to 2017. That’s also up from 12.8% a year earlier.

Cancelations happen when buyers see better homes and back out during the inspection period or when a they dont want to repair an issue that comes up after signing contracts. Other times, they just get cold feet and assume an even more desirable property will eventually become available.

“House hunters are also feeling jittery because of economic and geopolitical uncertainty,” Redfin said. “Many Americans are concerned about job security, inflation, the Iran war, and other world events that can make their finances feel shaky.”

Jason Ma is the weekend editor at Fortune, where he covers markets, the economy, finance, and housing.

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