Get audio access with any FP subscription. Subscribe Now ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN

Get audio access with any FP subscription.

ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN

Whatever happens in the coming months, the prospects for a lasting peace between the United States and Iran are dim.

Iran’s nuclear program, missile and drone arsenal, and proxy groups still stand; control of the Strait of Hormuz remains contested; and perhaps most important, Russian and Chinese support is facilitating a rapid Iranian reconstitution. Meanwhile, the war has exposed fundamental vulnerabilities in the United States’ Middle East posture and munitions inventories, and U.S. forces have exited the conflict exhausted and depleted.

Whatever happens in the coming months, the prospects for a lasting peace between the United States and Iran are dim.

Iran’s nuclear program, missile and drone arsenal, and proxy groups still stand; control of the Strait of Hormuz remains contested; and perhaps most important, Russian and Chinese support is facilitating a rapid Iranian reconstitution. Meanwhile, the war has exposed fundamental vulnerabilities in the United States’ Middle East posture and munitions inventories, and U.S. forces have exited the conflict exhausted and depleted.

The White House and Department of Defense should expect a more difficult Iran in the months ahead.

In seven months, Iran has validated the utility of its drone and missile arsenal, successfully driven a wedge between Israel and its Arab neighbors, and degraded U.S. forces. Simultaneously, Iran’s mines, small boats, drones, and missiles have largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, holding global energy markets hostage. Rather than isolate Iran from Russia and China, the conflict appears to have only increased their defense industrial cooperation. Buoyed by these successes and motivated to deter future U.S. and Israeli interventions, Iran has every incentive to reconstitute its missile and drone arsenal, learn from this war, and continue its bid for regional dominance.

The question for the United States is therefore not just how to end the current conflict, but how to avoid a new disaster that dwarfs the losses and damage of recent months. We recently ran two war games exploring what a future round of........

© Foreign Policy