The future of Venezuela after the capture of Nicolás Maduro remains uncertain, but one thing that’s clear is that U.S. President Donald Trump is hesitant to put boots on the ground. A special forces raid to capture Maduro is one thing. But Trump seems to know that a full invasion and occupation of Venezuela for an extended regime change would be too costly for American voters to stomach. It’s why he hasn’t done it already.

The Trump administration’s plainly stated hope now is that the new acting Venezuelan leader, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, will meet U.S. demands. Extreme versions of these demands—such as transferring ownership of Venezuelan oil, nationalized democratically decades ago, to U.S. ownership—would be plainly illegal under Venezuelan law. What the Trump administration is prepared to do should Rodríguez refuse or fail to deliver is unknown. But perhaps the more important question is this: Can any Venezuelan leader cave to Trump without risking overthrow from within?

The future of Venezuela after the capture of Nicolás Maduro remains uncertain, but one thing that’s clear is that U.S. President Donald Trump is hesitant to put boots on the ground. A special forces raid to capture Maduro is one thing. But Trump seems to know that a full invasion and occupation of Venezuela for an extended regime change would be too costly for American voters to stomach. It’s why he hasn’t done it already.

The Trump administration’s plainly stated hope now is that the new acting Venezuelan leader, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, will meet U.S. demands. Extreme versions of these demands—such as transferring ownership of Venezuelan oil, nationalized democratically decades ago, to U.S. ownership—would be plainly illegal under Venezuelan law. What the Trump administration is prepared to do should Rodríguez refuse or fail to deliver is unknown. But perhaps the more important question is this: Can any Venezuelan leader cave to Trump without risking overthrow from within?

The situation that Venezuela and the United States now find themselves in is remarkably similar to that which confronted U.S. President James K. Polk and ultimately led to the Mexican-American War of 1846-1848. Much like Trump today, Polk didn’t originally want a full-scale war with Mexico. He just wanted Mexican territory, and he hoped for a deal with Mexico whereby the United States could obtain vast swaths of Mexican territory through coercive diplomacy and a cash payment.

The threat of war was supposed to be sufficient to convince Mexico to recognize the U.S. annexation of Texas and part willingly with California and New Mexico. This is........

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