Your company probably saw the problem coming. Here’s why it got blindsided anyway

How to spot strategic threats—and stop them before they start.

[Source Image: Andy March/Adobe Stock]

Most strategic surprises aren’t really surprises. Somebody inside the company almost always saw the signal early. The question is why the organization didn’t do anything useful with those insights while there was still time.

I think of an organization’s early warning capacity as having three parts. Sensing is whether you pick up leading indicators while the signals are still weak. Discipline is whether there’s........

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