The $150 oil shock might be exactly what our future needs

A crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is terrifying. But what if expensive oil isn’t a bug in the transition to a green, knowledge-based economy, but a feature?

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The oil markets are rattled. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows—have sent prices toward $90 a barrel, with Qatar’s energy minister warning they could hit $150 within weeks. Energy analysts are invoking “the mother of all disaster scenarios.” Commentators are drawing comparisons to the 1970s. The mood is grim.

But here is an uncomfortable question worth contemplating: What if expensive oil is not a catastrophe, but an inflection point that finally aligns economic incentives to address critical issues that decision-makers in the global economy have been ignoring for decades?

That is the argument that economic historian Carlota Perez has been making for years. And right now, with oil shocks back on the front page and the energy transition stalling under political headwinds, her framework urgently deserves renewed attention.

Technology revolutions and their discontents

Perez, whose landmark work Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital traces the long waves of capitalist development from the Industrial Revolution to the digital age, argues that we are living through a pivotal transition. Each great technological revolution—steam power, railways, steel, automobiles, information technology—follows a predictable arc: an installation period of financial speculation and infrastructure-building, followed by a deployment period in which society learns to use the new technology productively and broadly, with a dramatic reduction in income inequality and shared prosperity as a result. 

We are, she argues, at exactly that inflection point with digital and green technologies. The installation phase—the dot-com boom, the shale revolution, the explosion of platform companies—is behind us. What comes next, if societies make the right choices, is a potential “golden age” of broad-based prosperity, grounded not in the extraction of physical materials but in the creation of knowledge, services, and sustainable production.

The catch? Getting from here to there requires making the old paradigm less attractive. And that is precisely where expensive oil comes in.

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