The Korean Peninsula has historically been a major factor in international security. In the contemporary Indo-Pacific region, it is an increasingly important centre of gravity for stability and instability. This paper argues that whereas most conflicts in the Indo-Pacific are complex, the Korean Peninsula is the Indo-Pacific’s central fulcrum for stability or instability due to the intersection of nuclear brinkmanship, great-power competition, and crisis-laden yet potentially stabilising alliances. The implications for this region are significant, as decisions made within this context will influence Indo-Pacific security for decades to come.

Geography makes the Korean Peninsula pivotal for Indo-Pacific security concerns. The Korean Peninsula is strategically situated at the border between continental Asia and the Pacific Ocean, sharing land borders with China and Russia and facing Japan across the East Sea. Disputes in the region can disrupt maritime traffic and military activities in the Yellow Sea and East Sea, all of which have contributed to tensions between military powers in the area. The Yellow Sea and East Sea overlap with Chinese and North Korean air defence identification zones, while the East Sea is home to an increasingly busy maritime environment.

North Korea is the biggest source of instability in the region today. Its nuclear and conventional military power and ongoing missile tests destabilise deterrence and create a dynamic of escalation. North Korea, too, has a significant cyber warfare capability that targets the financial institutions and critical infrastructure of its neighbours and other countries in Asia. The humanitarian issues add to the complexity: food insecurity, human rights abuses inside North Korea, and regime instability. Thus, the challenge is not only the North Korean nuclear stockpile or even the North Korean........

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