Iran today stands at one of the most tragic, complex, and at the same time decisive junctures in its contemporary history—a moment in which a defiant and protesting society is caught between the hammer of war and the anvil of repression. War and its consequences—from insecurity to economic pressures—have disrupted the daily lives of the people. At the same time, the regime, by intensifying repression and significantly increasing executions, has further constricted the political and social space.

Although war has prevented the immediate of a nationwide uprising, this does not signal the end of protest dynamics. On the contrary, the continuation of executions and the militarization of cities reflect the regime’s deep fear of internal unrest. As the regime’s own officials have acknowledged, “the strait of the street is now more important than the Strait of Hormuz”—a clear admission that the primary threat is internal, not external.

This concern is not unfounded. In recent years, Iran has witnessed successive waves of social uprisings, each revealing the depth of public dissatisfaction and the readiness for change. Although these movements have been temporarily suppressed, they have not disappeared; rather, they persist as layers of accumulated discontent that will re-emerge more forcefully when opportunities arise.

At the same time, the regime itself is under mounting pressure. The loss of Khamenei, the leader of the system, along with a number of key figures, coupled with military blows and severe economic crises, has weakened its cohesion and governing capacity. The result is a more fragile structure........

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