By Matthew Karnitschnig

(EurActiv) — The unprecedented joint US – Israeli strike on Iran has altered the strategic calculus in the Middle East. For years, European leaders treated the Islamic Republic as a chronic but manageable problem – a destabilising force to be contained through diplomacy, sanctions and periodic brinkmanship. That assumption no longer holds. The strike has exposed the regime’s fragility and created an opening that Europe should not squander.

Intelligence assessments circulating in Western capitals suggest that the pillars of the Iranian regime are under severe strain. Economic collapse, factional infighting and popular unrest have converged in ways not seen in decades. The mass protests that erupted in January – and the brutal crackdown that followed – shattered any remaining illusion of domestic legitimacy. Tens of thousands of demonstrators were reportedly killed or detained. The memory of that repression remains raw, and opposition networks inside and outside the country view the current moment as pivotal.

For Europe, this is not simply a matter of solidarity with an oppressed people. It is a question of security.

Over nearly five decades, the Islamic Republic has positioned itself as an adversary of the West. Its support for proxy militias across the Middle East – from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen – has fuelled instability along critical trade corridors. Its actions in the Strait of Hormuz have threatened energy supplies and maritime security. European citizens have been detained and used as bargaining chips. Intelligence services across the continent have linked Tehran to assassination plots and surveillance operations on European soil.

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