By Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

Iran escalates by targeting multiple waterways: After closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is now threatening other routes (including the Red Sea/Bab Al-Mandab) and attacking ships in Omani channels and elsewhere in the Gulf to disrupt energy exports.

Houthis join the escalation: Following a Mahan Air flight landing in Houthi-controlled territory (violating UNSC Resolution 2216 and Yemeni government orders), the Houthis launched ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia, breaking a long-standing truce.

Risks to global trade and energy security: Any closure or disruption of Bab Al-Mandab could severely impact ~15% of global maritime trade, including significant oil and gas shipments, driving up commodity prices worldwide.

In its latest bid to escalate, Iran has gone all-out. After closing the Strait of Hormuz, on Wednesday it threatened to go after other waterways in the region to stop energy exports, as reported by Iran’s official media. The escalation in Yemen is part of that plan.

Tehran seems to have been especially enraged by the new channel Oman has provided for safe passage through its own territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz. After Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi failed to persuade Oman to abandon this effort, Iran attacked ships crossing the Omani channel, ships elsewhere on the other side of the Gulf and other targets hundreds of miles away in a country that has, for decades, stood by Tehran when most countries abandoned it and mediated its numerous conflicts with the international community.

Iran also repeatedly attacked other Gulf Cooperation Council states and Jordan. Stating the obvious, Tehran on Sunday announced that it was no longer bound by the memorandum of understanding it signed with the US. Part of the escalation is due to Iran’s belief that the agreement gave it full control of the Strait of Hormuz, which was not how the US or mediators........

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