By Dania Koleilat Khatib

Dania Koleilat Khatib argues the Houthi push toward Mokha and Bab al-Mandab is Iranian-backed pressure on oil prices and U.S. midterms after Hormuz failed to crash the world economy. Tehran denies giving orders; she says that deniability is not credible.

She cites lower Chinese oil demand (~3.6 million b/d less), strategic reserves, and Gulf workarounds (East–West line to Yanbu up to 7 million b/d; Fujairah) as reasons prices did not hit worst-case $200. Houthi strikes on Abha, Khamis Mushait, and Jazan (73 injured, a fire at an oil site) brought a Makkah-pact meeting and a Pakistani warning.

Closing Bab al-Mandab, she writes, would choke Saudi Red Sea exports and is a red line that could turn a pact that invited Iran into a pact aimed at it. She wants a Yemen deal with Riyadh instead of that card. Opinion, not a verified order of battle.

The Houthis have launched a new offensive, probably with the aim of taking the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. An Iranian spokesperson said the Houthis are independent and do not take orders from anyone. But any observer knows this is not true. The Houthis could not have carried out this offensive without Iranian military and logistical support. Tehran wants to put pressure on the global economy ahead of the American midterm elections — but Bab Al-Mandab is a red line it should be careful not to cross.Iran’s proxies have always offered it the advantage of plausible deniability. Iran can claim they act on their own. However, it has been reported that the Houthis acted based on directives from Iran and that senior leaders from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps traveled to Sanaa to support the group. Last........

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