Smaller states such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh face constrained strategic autonomy amid intensifying great-power rivalry, as highlighted at the Bay of Bengal Conversation 2026 in Dhaka.

Bangladesh is navigating a post-Sheikh Hasina political transition while both countries emphasize non-alignment and development, yet Sri Lanka’s refusal to aid 19 stranded Iranian oil tankers due to US secondary sanctions illustrates practical limits imposed by major powers.

Despite talk of multipolarity and strategic autonomy, small states must navigate power politics with realism and prudence, as they cannot choose the world they inhabit but can determine how wisely they respond to it.

As the world enters a period of mounting geopolitical uncertainty, policymakers, scholars, and strategists are increasingly grappling with fundamental questions about the future of the international order. President Donald Trump’s second term has intensified debates over power, influence, and the changing nature of global politics. Recent developments have once again underscored the enduring capacity of the United States, as the world’s leading power, to shape international affairs. As White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller recently remarked, we are entering a world “governed by strength, governed by force, and governed by power.”

For smaller states, these shifts raise difficult and increasingly urgent questions. How should they navigate intensifying great-power rivalry? How much strategic autonomy do they truly possess? And what options remain available in an international environment increasingly shaped by power politics rather than principle?

These questions formed the backdrop to the Bay of Bengal Conversation 2026, held in Dhaka from 3 to 5 October and organised by the Centre for Governance Studies (CGS), one of Bangladesh’s leading think tanks. Now in its fifth edition, the forum brought together diplomats, academics, business leaders and policy specialists from across the region to discuss the challenges confronting small........

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