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The United States is imposing tariffs on much of the world, disrupting supply chains and inviting retaliation from its trading partners. Yet American food inflation remains lower than Canada’s.

CHARLEBOIS: Canada's food inflation problem isn’t Donald Trump, it’s Canada Back to video

For Canadians repeatedly told that external forces are primarily responsible for their rising grocery bills, this is an uncomfortable comparison.

From January 2025 to July, Canada’s total food price index increased by about 8.5%, compared with 4.4% in the United States. At first glance, food prices appear to have risen almost twice as quickly in Canada.

There is, however, an important statistical caveat. Total food includes restaurant meals and January 2025 fell during Canada’s temporary GST/HST holiday. Restaurant prices were artificially depressed before jumping when the tax returned. Starting the comparison in January therefore exaggerates Canada’s increase.

A cleaner grocery-only comparison still tells a troubling story. Between January 2025 and July, prices for food purchased from stores increased by about 5.8% in Canada, compared with 3.4% in the United States. Canadian grocery prices rose roughly 70% faster.

The gap is real. The explanation is more complicated than tariffs.

Scale remains huge advantage for U.S. consumers

Although the United States has erected trade barriers against many countries, it is not literally tariffing every product from every trading partner. Exemptions, negotiated arrangements and preferential treatment for compliant goods remain. More importantly,........

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