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The Canada–U.S. trade dispute has crossed another threshold. What began with tariffs moved to counter-tariffs and has now reached outright import bans on both sides of the border. The economic pain is no longer theoretical.

CHARLEBOIS: Canada picked a trade fight it cannot afford Back to video

Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned Canadians that reducing our dependence on the United States will come at a cost. At least he was honest. But Canadians deserve to know how much pain, who will bear it and what economic outcome their sacrifice is expected to purchase.

Washington’s agri-food response is sweeping. Beginning September 29, the United States will ban most Canadian alcohol, including beer, wine, cider and spirits. The measures also cover whey products, molasses and non-alcoholic beer, while additional Canadian cheeses will face a 50% tariff.

Based on recent trade flows, annual Canadian exposure is estimated at $2.3 billion to $2.8 billion. Alcohol represents roughly $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion; whey, $75 million to $105 million; non-alcoholic beer, $35 million to $70 million; cheese, $125 million; and other dairy, $275 million to $360 million.

It is surprising that an alcohol ban took this long. Several provinces made American liquor an early, visible target. Pulling U.S. bourbon from provincial shelves was easy to explain and photograph. Governments should have........

© Edmonton Sun