Share this Story : Edmonton Journal Copy Link Email X Reddit Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr

Opinion: How the Oilers can win a Cup by trading Evan Bouchard

You can save this article by registering for free here. Or sign-in if you have an account.

It’s time to do something shocking, that is, something surprising, potentially distressing, and emotionally intense. It’s heresy to say it, but it’s time to trade Evan Bouchard.

Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.

Exclusive articles by David Staples, Keith Gerein and others, Oilers news from Cult of Hockey, Ask EJ Anything features, the Noon News Roundup and Under the Dome newsletters.

Unlimited online access to Edmonton Journal and 15 news sites with one account.

Edmonton Journal ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.

Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.

Support local journalism.

Subscribe now to read the latest news in your city and across Canada.

Exclusive articles by David Staples, Keith Gerein and others, Oilers news from Cult of Hockey, Ask EJ Anything features, the Noon News Roundup and Under the Dome newsletters.

Unlimited online access to Edmonton Journal and 15 news sites with one account.

Edmonton Journal ePaper, an electronic replica of the print edition to view on any device, share and comment on.

Daily puzzles, including the New York Times Crossword.

Support local journalism.

Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.

Access articles from across Canada with one account.

Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments.

Enjoy additional articles per month.

Get email updates from your favourite authors.

Create an account or sign in to continue with your reading experience.

Access articles from across Canada with one account

Share your thoughts and join the conversation in the comments

Enjoy additional articles per month

Get email updates from your favourite authors

Sign In or Create an Account

When I watch the Oilers, I look at key analytics — analytics that relate to winning and losing NHL games. I call these analytic metrics “the Great Eight:”

goals-against average;

goalie save percentage;

blocked shots per 60;

short-handed faceoff win percentage;

penalty kill; and the lone offensive metric;

These metrics are empirically based predictors of winning NHL games. Models based on them correctly predicted Florida’s 4-2 series win over Edmonton last year and nearly predicted an Edmonton victory in 2024, which favoured the Oilers in Game 7.

Get the latest headlines, breaking news and columns.

There was an error, please provide a valid email address.

By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc.

A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.

The next issue of Headline News will soon be in your inbox.

We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again

Interested in more newsletters? Browse here.

Winning and losing NHL games are determined by razor-thin margins and, as the book The Random Factor indicates, roughly 53 per cent of each and every NHL game is determined by chance. (Speaking of shocking!)

So called puck luck is precisely why the best players in the world, like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, cannot simply will their team to a Stanley Cup. The NHL isn’t the NBA, where outcomes are based on 18-per-cent chance, and where “main effects” allow superstars to single-handedly win games. Think Kawhi Leonard. In hockey, bounces, deflections, and mistakes decide series.

The past 10 years, I’ve published 16 op-eds on the importance of defensive intensity, mental toughness, and grit. Defensive intensity is, by the way, the single most important factor in hockey. Not Corsi. Not shot clocks. Not expected goals for.

Those offensive metrics are not related to wins and losses. Many people believe insanity (a legal term) is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Psychologists define it differently. Psychologists partially define it as a disconnect between perception and reality. Team offence determining games is perception. Team defence determining games is reality.

The Oilers’ persistent tilt toward offence is not just mistaken. It’s, well — you know.

Stanley Cup-winning teams understand this reality. They play harder in their own end, don’t cheat for offence, capitalize on opponents’ mistakes, and win the special teams battle. That’s the winning formula.

In Oil Country, many fans and media scapegoat goaltenders. That narrative is false. Goalie save percentage is best conceptualized as a team metric, not an individual statistic. Goalies are only as good as the defensive structure and positional play in front of them.

Trade talk gets loud for first time around Darnell Nurse Cult of Hockey

Trade talk gets loud for first time around Darnell Nurse

Edmonton Oilers might trade for Team Canada goalie, NHL insider says Cult of Hockey

Edmonton Oilers might trade for Team Canada goalie, NHL insider says

Advertisement 1Story continues belowThis advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.document.addEventListener(`DOMContentLoaded`,function(){let template=document.getElementById(`oop-ad-template`);if(template&&!template.dataset.adInjected){let clone=template.content.cloneNode(!0);template.replaceWith(clone),template.parentElement&&(template.parentElement.dataset.adInjected=`true`)}});

Trade deadline isn't going to matter if Edmonton Oilers don't wake up Sports

Trade deadline isn't going to matter if Edmonton Oilers don't wake up

Mangiapane plays just one AHL shift, a sure sign he's coming back to NHL. But where? Cult of Hockey

Mangiapane plays just one AHL shift, a sure sign he's coming back to NHL. But where?

'Buckle up Oiler fans!': Smoke signals Edmonton working on blockbuster trade Cult of Hockey

'Buckle up Oiler fans!': Smoke signals Edmonton working on blockbuster trade

Positional play should be a key criterion for evaluating player performance. Fortunately, NHL teams have this type of granular tracking data from chips in players’ jerseys. Hopefully, they are using it.

Trading Bouchard for another Mattias Ekholm-like defenceman and, let’s say, a future first-round draft pick (and possibly more) makes good sense.

Yes, Bouchard’s offensive prowess is elite, off the charts. And, yes, he quarterbacks a dynamic power play. By all accounts, he’s an extremely good person and teammate. Trading him would cause internal angst, hand-wringing, and debate. But his strengths amplify what Edmonton already has in abundance: offence.

What Edmonton lacks is relentless defensive bite.

It’s time to acquire a defensive menace. Stabilize and reshuffle the blue line, top-to-bottom. Improve the penalty kill. Raise blocked shots and takeaways per 60. Protect the slot. Lower goals against. Lift team save percentage. The ripple effects would be profound, as data are clear: Defence and strong positional play reduce randomness and win games. Shots are called “chances” for a reason.

To be sure, trading beloved players is difficult. It feels wrong. It feels like betrayal. It’s shocking. Oiler brass can shock the world and perhaps, finally, bring the Stanley Cup home by doing the unthinkable and trading Bouchard at the deadline.

Dr. Bill Hanson is a registered psychologist, CEO of the Psychologists’ Association of Alberta (PAA), and a retired professor of psychology. He competed in three NCAA golf championships and has, since the ’80s, obsessed about sports performance and analytics. Opinions expressed are his own. He may be reached at flexpsychology.stalbert@gmail.com.

We invite you to write letters to the editor. A maximum of 150 words is preferred. Letters must carry a first and last name, or two initials and a last name, and include an address and daytime telephone number. All letters are subject to editing. We don’t publish letters addressed to others or sent to other publications. Email: letters@edmontonjournal.com

Bookmark our website and support our journalism: Don’t miss the news you need to know — add EdmontonJournal.com and EdmontonSun.com to your bookmarks and sign up for our newsletters here.

You can also support our journalism by becoming a digital subscriber. Subscribers gain unlimited access to The Edmonton Journal, Edmonton Sun, National Post and 13 other Canadian news sites. Support us by subscribing today: The Edmonton Journal |The Edmonton Sun.

Share this Story : Edmonton Journal Copy Link Email X Reddit Pinterest LinkedIn Tumblr

Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion. Please keep comments relevant and respectful. Comments may take up to an hour to appear on the site. You will receive an email if there is a reply to your comment, an update to a thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information.

© Edmonton Journal