THE country’s external liquidity rests shakily on the two crutches of endless IMF loans and rollovers of patron-state deposits. Both carry high costs — economic and political.

Our rulers entice patron states to bankroll a near-bankrupt state via its geopolitical, not economic, value. Rulers exploit both for personal, not public, gains. They court patrons well, but turn patronage into public progress poorly and personal profits ably. So, our growth spurts are all import-led rather than export-led. We spend dollars faster than we earn and court crises. We recover by choking growth instead of increasing it alongside exports. We have had several chances but have squandered most of them.

Musharraf squandered the biggest one this century. He ruled the longest, with the deep state and opposition under his thumb, and gained over $45bn in US aid, debt relief, FDI, and portfolio inflows after 9/11. Yet, a strong export base eluded him. Inflows fuelled consumption, imports, and property binges and bubbles; volatile portfolio funds and domestically focused FDI later led to outflows. They initially kept the rupee high, hurting exports. Their value doubled, but value-added dawdled and the export-GDP ratio fell below 1990s levels. A record........

© Dawn