Oil rises as expanding US-Israeli conflict with Iran elevates supply risks

Oil prices rose for a third day on Tuesday as the widening US-Israeli conflict with Iran and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of supply disruptions from the key Middle East producing region.

Brent crude futures were at $79.44 a barrel, up $1.70, or 2.2 per cent, by 04:00 GMT. On Monday, the contract surged to as high as $82.37, its highest since January 2025, though it pared those gains to settle 6.7pc higher.

US West Texas Intermediate crude jumped $1.17, or 1.6pc, to $72.40 a barrel. In the previous session, the contract initially climbed to its highest since June 2025 before sliding back to still settle up 6.3pc.

“With no quick de-escalation in sight, the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and Iran showing a willingness to target energy infrastructure in the region, upside risks remain and they grow the longer the conflict drags on,” Tony Sycamore, ING market analyst, said in a note.

The US and Israeli air war against Iran widened on Monday with Israel attacking Lebanon and Iran responding with strikes against energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

Tankers and container ships are also avoiding the waterway as insurers have cancelled their coverage for vessels, while global oil and gas shipping rates have soared. Concerns about transiting the waterway increased after Iranian media reported on Monday that a senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards official said the Strait of Hormuz is closed and warned Iran will fire on any ship trying to pass.

About 20pc of the world’s oil and gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

“The market continues to digest the risk of escalation in the Middle East,” said ING analysts in a Tuesday note.

“While there are concerns about oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a greater risk to the market would be Iran targeting additional energy infrastructure in the region. This could lead to more prolonged outages.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed on Monday that the US and Israel’s war against Iran may take “some time,” but it will not take years.

Analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated over the coming days while markets focus on the impact of escalating Middle East conflict.

Bernstein on Monday raised its 2026 Brent oil price assumption from $65 to $80 a barrel, but sees prices reaching $120-$150 in an extreme case of prolonged conflict.

Refined product futures are also gaining as the Middle East is a key supplier of fuels, and their processing facilities are at risk. On Monday, Saudi Arabia shut its biggest domestic oil refinery after a drone strike.

US ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures were up 4.2pc at $3.0207 per gallon after reaching a two-year high on Monday, while gasoline futures were up 1.7pc at $2.4113 per gallon after climbing 3.7pc in the previous session.

European gasoil futures gained 4.3pc to $925 a metric ton, after climbing 18pc on Monday.

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