The next few months may be the most crucial Jim Chalmers has faced as treasurer, at least for judgements about his ability to drive change.

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They could tell us whether Chalmers really is as committed to serious economic reform as he claims, and how much influence he has to take Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with him on a journey that might involve spending political capital.

As the education year gears up, think of it as Chalmers preparing for his first personal assignment of Labor's second term.

The background to Chalmers' test is economically grim, but the political context provides wide-open opportunities.

Last week's inflation hike (to 3.8 per cent in the year to December), and this week's interest rate rise (to 3.85 per cent) brought a jolt of economic reality.

Pre-election, things felt more positive. Inflation had been artificially held down through the energy rebates. Real wages had been creeping up. Labor had more handouts on the way. All that (as well as an inept opposition) helped the government glide through the election to its massive majority.

But now the immediate future has darkened for many households. Inflation is forecast to remain high. Interest rates are widely expected to rise further. Real wages are not expected to grow until mid-next year.

Is this the time for ambitious reform, which often comes with short-term pain and losers? But then there is that old question: if not now, when?

The May 12 budget will be the first of this parliamentary term, in theory the best time for hard decisions. The government has not only a huge lower house majority but a fairly pliant Senate, where it can get tough measures through with the support of either the Greens (if they're attractive to the left) or the conservatives (on the right flank). The opposition is a shambles and is likely to remain so for the foreseeable future, so its attacks will have little impact.

Economists would mostly agree reform needs to include significant cuts to, and containment of,........

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