Byelections usually reflect a government’s performance. The one coming up in Calgary-Shaw is different — it’s a litmus test for former mayor Naheed Nenshi and his leadership of the provincial NDP.

Given that we’re now into the fourth year of UCP rule under Premier Danielle Smith and that Shaw went Tory by a comfortable — though not overwhelming — tally in May 2023, an Opposition victory would hardly be a surprise. Byelections are notorious for delivering a slap for the party in power, especially one so far into its mandate.

In addition, the Conservative vote will be split, with Kyle Joseph of the newly-formed Progressive Tory Party of Alberta also on the ballot, along with the UCP’s Mike Derry and the NDP’s Kyle Campbell.

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The trouble for the NDP is a recent Leger poll shows they still trail the government by 10 percentage points, a gap that has barely changed since Nenshi took over the leadership in June 2024.

This has led to much introspection among party brass. After all,........

© Calgary Herald