The future of North America’s economic partnership is entering one of its most consequential periods in decades. While global attention has largely focused on the FIFA World Cup being hosted across the United States, Mexico, and Canada, a far more significant contest is unfolding behind the scenes. The three neighboring nations are engaged in difficult negotiations over the future of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade pact that supports nearly $2 trillion in annual economic activity and serves as the foundation of one of the world’s most integrated regional economies.

The outcome of these negotiations will shape not only trade relations across North America but also provide a clearer picture of how US President Donald Trump intends to conduct international economic diplomacy during the remainder of his second term. From tariffs and supply chains to investment rules and geopolitical competition with China, the stakes extend well beyond the three countries directly involved.

The USMCA, which entered into force in July 2020, replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a landmark accord first implemented in 1994. At the time of its signing, President Trump hailed the USMCA as a “historic” achievement that modernized North American trade while protecting American workers and industries. The agreement updated rules governing digital commerce, labor standards, intellectual property, automotive manufacturing, and agricultural trade, while preserving the tariff-free movement of most goods across the continent.

However, Trump’s position has shifted considerably. Although he once celebrated the agreement as a major political accomplishment, he has recently argued that the USMCA is no longer serving American interests and has openly questioned whether it should continue in its current form. Those remarks have introduced considerable uncertainty into a process that many initially expected would lead to a relatively straightforward extension of the agreement.

A key milestone passed without resolution when negotiators failed to reach an agreement by the early July review deadline. While the missed deadline does not automatically threaten the agreement’s survival, it underscores the complexity of the negotiations and the significant differences separating Washington from its two North American partners.

Unlike the United States, both Canada and Mexico have consistently expressed support for renewing the agreement largely........

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