Three weeks into the ongoing US-Israeli air campaign against Iran, strategic attention has increasingly shifted toward one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz. Its disruption—or outright closure—poses consequences far beyond the immediate theater of conflict.

At its narrowest, the strait spans roughly 39 kilometers. Yet navigable shipping lanes are far more restricted, limited to about 3.7 kilometers in each direction. Despite this constraint, the waterway carries nearly 20 percent of global oil consumption and approximately one-third of all seaborne crude exports. A significant share of these shipments is bound for major Asian economies, including China, Japan, and South Korea.

Given its geographic proximity to Iran, the strait has long been vulnerable to disruption. Tehran has repeatedly demonstrated its readiness to interfere with maritime traffic, whether through vessel seizures, harassment, or direct attacks. While Washington has indicated surprise at Iran’s recent move to shut down the passage, such a scenario has been widely anticipated in strategic planning circles for years.

The US response, however, has lacked consistency. Officials have alternated between asserting that Iran lacked the capability to block the strait, expressing shock at its closure, urging allies to assist in reopening it, and later suggesting such support might not be........

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