The inflation risk hiding in the Red Sea
Pakistan’s inflation rate returned to double digits in August, climbing to 11.1 percent from 9.2 percent in July and matching June’s level. The six-month average from March to August is less dramatic, at about 10.2 percent, and some of the pressure will fade as base effects roll over. The more consequential question is what happens to energy and shipping costs, and the answer is increasingly being decided in the Red Sea and the Gulf.
Last week’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline matters less for the barrels it temporarily removed from the market than for what it reveals about redundancy. Saudi Arabia built the pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, carrying crude from its eastern fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. With Hormuz already constrained, the line had become part of the world’s emergency energy infrastructure. Energy markets absorb disruption because they have backups: alternative pipelines and ports, spare tanker capacity and inventories. Inflation turns dangerous when those backups start failing at the same time.
The Houthis have not claimed the pipeline strike, and Saudi Arabia says the drones were launched from Iraq. But that should not obscure the larger picture. The Houthis have separately blockaded Saudi shipping in the Red Sea and seized Perim Island at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Lloyd’s List estimates that........
