Pakistan rarely gets a second chance to turn geography into trade. The slowdown around Iran’s Chabahar port may now offer one.

The US sanctions waiver that allowed India to operate at Chabahar expired on April 26, but the bigger disruption has come from the US-Iran war, which has transformed the risks surrounding Iranian infrastructure, shipping and finance. India’s 2026-27 budget made no fresh allocation for Chabahar after New Delhi said it had fulfilled its $120 million commitment for port equipment. Yet India has not abandoned the project. The port remains operational, and New Delhi retains its strategic interest. The point is not that Chabahar has closed. It is that the certainty underpinning India’s role there has weakened just as Pakistan needs to make Gwadar commercially credible.

For India, Chabahar was always about more than a port. It offered access to Afghanistan and Central Asia without passing through Pakistan, and gave New Delhi a southern node for the International North-South Transport Corridor. The 10-year operating agreement signed in May 2024 showed India still regarded the project as strategically important. But sanctions risk is no longer an abstract compliance issue. Since the war began, shipping through the Gulf and surrounding waters has faced attacks, rerouting and higher insurance costs. That........

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