As the United States–Israel war against Iran enters its third week and continues to spill across the region, the question is no longer who will win but how this conflict might end. Each round of retaliation deepens a cycle that threatens to pull the wider Middle East into prolonged instability. Yet even the most entrenched wars eventually give way to negotiation. The challenge is recognising the moment when continuing the fight becomes more costly than stepping back.

Earlier this week, Iran once again denied responsibility for recent attacks on civilian infrastructure in the Gulf and proposed forming a joint committee with regional states to investigate the incidents. Tehran suggested that a cooperative mechanism involving Gulf countries could clarify what happened and determine responsibility. Whether such a proposal is sincere or simply tactical is another matter. Iran has repeatedly insisted that its war is with the US and Israel, not with its Gulf neighbours. But continued missile and drone attacks across the region have heightened suspicion. Any Iranian claim will be scrutinised carefully, if not outright rejected.

Still, Gulf states understand better than most that this war is not in their interest. It is not a conflict of their choosing, and they have been careful not to become direct participants so far. Their response has largely been limited to condemning Iran’s “indiscriminate and reckless strikes targeting sovereign territory and endangering civilian populations”, while focusing on defensive measures such as air defence operations. That restraint is not accidental. Gulf leaders know that a direct confrontation with Iran – a country of more than 90 million people with substantial military capabilities – could quickly spiral into a long and destructive regional war. The memory of the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s still looms large across the Gulf, a reminder of how quickly such conflicts can drag on for years and reshape the region.

There is also a deeper anxiety at play. Gulf capitals see little clarity in Washington about what the endgame of this war might be. At the same time, they are acutely aware that the conflict reflects the strategic priorities of Israel’s leadership under Benjamin Netanyahu. The concern in many Gulf capitals is that, if the war widens, they........

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