Twenty-eight years ago, in May 1998, Australia suspended defence cooperation with India after the nuclear tests at Pokhran. Military exchanges were frozen. Indian officers who were undergoing training at Australian defence colleges were sent home. This week, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Australia, the two countries announced that Canberra would invite an Indian military instructor to serve at the Australian Defence College. This journey from sanctions to strategic partnership is arguably one of the most remarkable bilateral transformations in contemporary history. Yet to view Modi’s visit to Australia simply as another success in India-Australia relations would be to understate its significance. For beyond Canberra, important as that connection is, lies the Asia Pacific, and it is here that Modi’s visit reveals a larger story about the changing balance of power.

Modi’s three-nation tour included Indonesia, Australia and New Zealand. Viewed on a map, the itinerary traces India’s expanding strategic horizon across the Asia Pacific. Indonesia anchors India’s outreach to Southeast Asia and sits at the junction of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Australia has become one of India’s most consequential strategic partners in recent years. New Zealand, though much smaller, extends India’s diplomatic reach further into the Pacific. Taken together, the three visits show how New Delhi reads the emerging balance of power and how it intends to shape it.

The context is stark. China is rising. America, under Donald Trump, is unpredictable and in retreat. Economics, technology, energy and even supply chains are becoming instruments of strategic competition.........

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