Even people who dislike Donald Trump tend to give him credit for one thing: getting NATO to pay its fair share. American presidents have long grumbled about burden sharing. Trump has been crude, theatrical and transactional, but the sentiment he expressed was broadly shared. And Europeans got the message. Non-American NATO countries collectively spent on average 1.4 percent of their combined gross domestic product on defense in 2014; in 2025, it was close to 2.3 percent.

But be careful what you wish for.

The usual assumption is that if Europe spends more, the United States will spend less. This is demonstrably wrong. European defense spending is at its highest level in decades, yet Trump has proposed a staggering $1.5 trillion defense budget for fiscal 2027.

U.S. defense spending has never been determined only by the needs of NATO. It reflects America’s role as a global superpower, with bases, fleets and commitments across the world. Washington wants to deter Russia, counter China, project power in the Middle East, protect global sea-lanes, defend the homeland, maintain nuclear superiority, dominate space, lead in drones and artificial intelligence, and preserve the ability to fight far from home. In fact, the International Institute for Strategic Studies calculated in 2018 that........

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