Why Putin’s nuclear threats aren’t working anymore

Ukraine is striking deep into Russia and pressuring Crimea. Does Putin have any “red lines” anymore?

Ukraine is increasingly launching drone strikes deep into Russia and threatening Russian-annexed Crimea, both steps that many once feared would result in nuclear retaliation from Moscow.

Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats aren’t as effective as they used to be, in part because it’s not clear what using a nuke would actually accomplish or whether it would be worth the risk.

The question now is whether Russia really has any “red lines,” or if there’s still a point where Vladimir Putin could reach for the nuclear codes out of desperation.

When did Ukraine’s allies stop being scared of Russia’s nuclear weapons?

At this week’s summit in Turkey, NATO leaders strongly backed Ukraine’s growing campaign of strikes deep into Russian territory, primarily targeted at that country’s energy infrastructure, meant to bring the costs of war home to Russian citizens and compel their government to stop the invasion. On one night this week, Ukraine launched more than 400 drones into Russia.

There was a time, not so long ago, when the prospect of strikes inside the borders of the world’s biggest nuclear power would provoke warnings from the Kremlin about the catastrophic consequences of crossing Russia’s “red lines,” along with hand-wringing from the US about the prospect of nuclear escalation. The prospect of direct combat between two nuclear powers was the reason the US resisted international calls to impose a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine back in 2022; made the Biden administration reluctant to provide long-range capabilities like HIMARS rockets, ATACMs missiles, and F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine; and then, after finally providing them, restricted their use to Ukrainian territory.

But now, as one western official put it to the Financial Times, the sheer frequency of Russia’s past nuclear threats during the conflict have “devalued the currency.” Putin has been making notably fewer of these threats recently, even the attacks inside Russia have accelerated. Russia’s “red lines” are now being crossed with stunning regularity. Ukrainian drones regularly strike not just military or industrial targets but cities including Moscow.

And since last year, the US has not only gotten out of the way but has been providing intelligence to facilitate this campaign. In Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014, a campaign targeting key bridges and rail links has led to food and fuel shortages. On the battlefield itself, the grinding offensive has been thrown into reverse; the Russians lost roughly 400 square miles of territory in April and May.

Russia has hardly given up, continuing to pound Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, with missiles and drones. But the fears of nuclear escalation seem to have notably diminished.

“We repeatedly oversell the risk of escalation,” said Maria Snegovaya, a prominent Russian political analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, at a panel discussion in Washington this week hosted by the Washington-based think tank the Quincy Institute. “During the Biden administration, many said that if Ukraine strikes deep into Russia’s territory, Russia will escalate,” Snegovaya said. “Ukraine now strikes into Siberia, over 2,500 kilometers deep into Russia, and we don’t see that........

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