As 2025 draws to a close, claims of liberal internationalism, values-based alliances, and a rules-based order have breathed their last under the rubble of Gaza.

We are now facing a ruthless, updated version of an old habit: Transactional Realism.

From Washington’s new strategy documents to Brussels’ search for security, this is the new operating system of global politics.

In this new phase, states—claiming they no longer have the luxury of idealism—view humanitarian values merely as cost items on a balance sheet to be deleted.

Their goal is no longer to establish justice, but to manage problems at the lowest possible cost. Alliances are no longer built on shared values, but on project-based, quid pro quo partnerships.

As the world turns into a vast diplomatic bazaar and diplomats are replaced by "dealmakers," the greatest danger of the coming year is not the outbreak of new wars, but the freezing of existing crises in Gaza and Ukraine through soulless deals that sacrifice justice.

If a global conscience is not mobilised in 2026, the result will be nothing but a postponed chaos—a conscienceless stability.

The grand bargain table

What makes this pragmatism even more dangerous in 2026 is the interconnectedness of crises, turning the international system into a giant grand bargain table.

A retreat in Ukraine has become tradeable for a move in Syria; diplomatic silence on Gaza can be swapped for a gain in energy security.

This new form of diplomacy blurs the lines separating files, turning the world into a savage marketplace where anything can be exchanged for anything else.

The war in Ukraine is likely to be the first laboratory of this global pragmatism.

As fatigue grows in European capitals and calls from the US to “end this war" intensify, 2026 will likely see a scenario where normative concepts like territorial integrity and........

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