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LILLEY: Food inflation still high and Mark Carney can't blame war for that

We have a uniquely Canadian problem that is not something Carney can blame on Trump, the tariffs or Trump’s war in Iran

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The latest numbers on inflation from Statistics Canada showing overall inflation dropping are already outdated.

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The federal agency released its latest report on Monday morning showing the Consumer Price Index rose 1.8% in February compared to a year earlier.

LILLEY: Food inflation still high and Mark Carney can't blame war for that Back to video

That was driven in large part by gas being 14% cheaper in February 2026 compared to February 2025.

Just over a year ago, the average price per litre for gasoline was $1.57, but that fell to $1.35 this past month. The inflation numbers were collected before the start of the war in Iran, which has seen gas prices shoot up dramatically.

According to the Canadian Automobile Association, the average price today across Canada is $1.64 a litre, with prices hitting more than $2 a litre over the weekend in parts of British Columbia.

Gas isn’t expected to drop in price anytime soon with the cost of a barrel of oil shooting up from US$62 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate on Feb. 16 to more than $95 a barrel today.

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LILLEY: City-run grocery store not the solution to food inflation

Gas plus a grocery hike mean pain in wallet

Combine that with the price of groceries rising by 4.1% on top of the 4.8% increase in January. According to Statistics Canada, grocery prices have increased 30.1% since February 2021.

That means a basket of groceries that cost you $100 five years ago now costs you $130.10 for the very same goods.

In that time, overall inflation across the economy has only been at about 20%, which is high but not as high as food inflation.

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What’s depressing is the explanation for why grocery prices were up in February but not by as much as they were in January.

“While downward pressure was broad-based, the deceleration was modest, and led by prices for fresh or frozen beef, which rose 13.9% in February following an 18.8% increase in January,” the StatsCan release said.

Think about that — inflation for groceries dropped to a still ridiculous 4.1% last month because beef prices only increased by 13.9% instead of the 18.8% increase in January. If you are feeling like steak or even ground beef don’t feel affordable anymore, it’s because they aren’t.

Your eyes are not fooling you or your wallet.

“Canadians will hold us to account by their experience at the grocery store,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said last May after winning the election.

Grocery inflation a uniquely Canadian problem

It’s a year since he became prime minister, it’s 11 months since he won the last election, and grocery prices continue to be out of control. Inflation for food purchased at restaurants is even worse at 7.8%.

Combined, Canada’s food inflation rate stands at 5.4%, which is far higher than any other G7 country. Japan’s latest food inflation number is 3.9%, Britain’s is 3.6%, the United States 3.1%, Italy 2.6%, France 2%, and Germany 1.5%.

We have a uniquely Canadian problem that has been persisting now for well over a year. This is not something that Carney can blame on Donald Trump, the tariffs or Trump’s war in Iran – not that his government won’t try.

Last week, Artificial Intelligence Minister Evan Solomon responded to February’s shocking unemployment numbers – more than 108,000 full-time jobs lost – by pointing to the war in Iran that started on Feb. 28. The day before, Carney’s Housing Minister Gregor Robertson blamed housing unaffordability on the war that started two weeks earlier.

The two items that Canadians are most price sensitive about but can’t live without are food and gasoline and both of them are going through the roof. There is a clear correlation between the war and price of gas and hopefully prices will drop when the bombing stops.

For food, though, Carney can’t blame high costs at the grocery store, a 30.1% increase in prices over five years, on this war or the current occupant of the White House.

He told us to judge him on our experience at the grocery store. My experience, just like my grocery bill, is utter disappointment.

blilley@postmedia.com

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