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India’s 7.8% GDP number has convinced no one and everyone

The govt's stance appears more robust: the standard practice involves comparing GDP within a single, consistent series, and Subhash Chandra Garg's widely circulated 2.6% figure indeed combines two different series.

On 31 August, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reported that India’s economy expanded by 7.8 per cent in real terms during the April-June quarter of FY 2026-27, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India’s forecast of 7 per cent. The Gross Value Added increased at an even higher rate of 8.2 per cent. This figure, ostensibly positive, coincided with the release of a new GDP series by MoSPI, rebased from 2011-12 to 2022-23. Five days after the announcement, the figure remains a subject of debate, reflecting the complexities of India’s statistical politics as much as the economic conditions. 

That is why the 7.8 per cent GDP figure is ThePrint’s Newsmaker of the Week.

Herculean feat, or statistical sleight of hand?

The first reactions were triumphant. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, posting on X, called the growth a “herculean feat” achieved despite oil shocks and global supply-chain disruption, and took a dig at critics in the same breath, writing that, “Doomsayers were doomed and India bloomed…yet again!”. 

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman credited the number to sustained reform and “agile management of the economy”. HDFC Bank’s principal........

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