AT THE TIME of writing, the world has absolutely no idea as to what is going to happen next in Iran. President Donald Trump’s messages are completely contradictory. Virtually simultaneously, he suggests that a ceasefire and a dramatic escalation are imminent.

Iranian leaders emphatically reject Trump’s claims that their country is effectively being demolished and contend that their enemies are negotiating with themselves. They mock Trump’s signature lines, employing “fake news” and “thank you for your attention to this matter” to convey their position.

How this conflict ultimately ends is anyone’s guess. The heat in the United States is increasingly on the commander-in-chief to call a halt to things. But Benjamin Netanyahu, prime minister of its-co-combatant, Israel, is driven by his zeal for regime change and looks to have a certain hold over President Trump. Further, for myriad reasons, it will be extremely difficult for the Americans to extricate themselves quickly. Iran ain’t Venezuela.

Rumours of backchannel talks being facilitated by nations in the Middle East are welcome. Whether they can succeed in the near future is unknowable. The spectre of US “boots on the ground” – once totally implausible – is no longer inconceivable. Of course, the dire consequences of the war are being felt by people here in Ireland and just about everywhere else.

What he has described as an “excursion” is, to be blunt, the single dumbest thing President Trump has done since his return to the White House in January 2025. It amounts to a wholesale repudiation of the America First rhetoric and connected pledge to not involve the US in “forever wars” that were so central to his appeal.

There was no coherent strategy. Hence, it is a mess.........

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