IN LESS THAN a month, voters in the United States will select the women and men they want to represent them on Capitol Hill and in state houses across the country. President Donald Trump is deeply unpopular, stemming in large part from his failure to reduce the cost of living, in concert with an extremely foolish decision to attack Iran. Additionally, the historical precedent is that a second time president’s party typically takes a beating in the midterms. 3 November, therefore, should not be a good day for Republicans on the ballot.

Indeed, the polling shows Democrats in an enviable position. They have a very solid chance of gaining control of both the US House of Representatives and Senate. GOP strategists counter that the polls are skewed leftward, that their adherents are reluctant to respond to surveys from distrusted sources, and that last minute deciders, on reflection and in the wake of an avalanche of spending on hard-hitting ads, will opt for their standard-bearers. Plus, Democrats are heavily reliant upon “low propensity voters” – especially the young and citizens of colour.

San Antonio, Texas, USA. 7th Oct, 2026. Law enforcement arrest a man for fighting with people waiting to see US President Trump during a midterm election campaign. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

There are innumerable variables in hotly contested races. To paraphrase Donald Rumsfeld, known unknowns and unknown unknowns abound. At this late juncture, in declining order of probability, it is rather odd that these disparate scenarios appear plausible: 1) a seismic Democratic triumph resulting in their running the legislative branch and making President Trump’s next two years in office a living hell, 2) a relative stalemate in which Democrats win, but not in dramatic fashion and 3) a........

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