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Chandigarh: The impending discussions between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin on Friday (September 11) in New Delhi over India’s possible purchase of Russia’s fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57 ‘Felon’ fighters, and the technology behind them, prompt a highly consequential question: does Moscow’s Su-57 offer and the Indian Air Force (IAF)’s eagerness to acquire it, sound the death knell for India’s own fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme – or at least consign it to a moribund existence?

This question remains highly pertinent, as the AMCA programme has faced serious turbulence over its General Electric (GE) F414-INS6 engine, around which its potential prototypes and initial variants are configured. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and GE have been negotiating the domestic manufacture of this 98-kilonewton (kN) engine in India under their 2023 agreement, which envisaged substantial technology transfer.

But over the past three years these talks appear to have reached an impasse over issues related to the quantum of critical technology transfer by GE, its intellectual property rights (IPR) over the engine, manufacturing arrangements and overall project costs.

Parallel discussions between GE and the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and its Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) for around 15 F-414 engines needed for AMCA prototypes and limited series production, as well as for the Indian Navy’s Twin-Engine Deck-Based Fighter (TEDBF), are also deadlocked.

Recent news reports, quoting unnamed industry officials, also revealed that the cost of each F-414 engine has reportedly risen almost threefold – from an earlier estimate of around Rs 70-80 crore to more than Rs 200 crore – further jeopardising both the twin-engine AMCA and  TEDBF programmes.

Moreover, the AMCA’s development timeline, even if its engine problems are somehow resolved, remains extended, with the first prototype not expected to fly before 2028-29 and operational induction unlikely before the mid-2030s when its series production is scheduled to begin.

But by then, the IAF’s fighter squadron strength is projected to have declined well below its current 29 squadrons, against an authorised 42, as six legacy SEPECAT Jaguar squadrons, dating back to the 1970s, are expected to begin retiring, outpacing the induction of replacements, including additional Dassault Rafales and the indigenous upgraded Tejas Mk1A fighters.

Consequently, the IAF risks entering the next decade still waiting for the AMCA, while China already fields fifth-generation fighters and Pakistan, its closely aligned nuclear and military partner, is preparing to acquire one such advanced platform from Beijing.

China’s J-20 is already operational, while the Pakistan Air Force........

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