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The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) may become a collateral casualty of the US-Israeli war on Iran. What began as transatlantic friction over defence spending has become a slow-burning fuse that threatens to blow up the alliance.

On Friday (April 24), Reuters reported that an internal email in the Pentagon outlined options for the US to punish NATO allies for failing to support US operations against Iran. The email detailed policy options prepared by Elridge Colby, the Pentagon’s top policy adviser, who suggested suspending Spain from the alliance and even reviewing support for UK’s claim to the Falklands islands in the southern Atlantic.

On April 1, President Trump was asked whether he might reconsider NATO membership once the war concluded. His reply was unsparing: “Oh yes, I would say [it’s] beyond reconsideration. I was never swayed by NATO – I always knew they were a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way.” He was not just venting frustration, the words seemed to have a ring of a settled conclusion.

For the present, the Colby email does not suggest that the US withdraw from NATO, nor does it propose closing bases there. But it could involve a reduction of US forces in Europe. And as for Spain, there is no provision in NATO’s Founding Treaty for suspending any member.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty.

Trump’s anger with NATO is not new, but it has found fresh fuel in the alliance’s response – or rather, its refusal to respond – to the Iran campaign. The principal NATO members not only declined to participate militarily; several went further, blocking the use of their airspace for missions targeting Iranian territory. When Washington called on allies to help open the Strait of Hormuz last month, it was bluntly rebuffed.

Should Trump pull the trigger on withdrawal, he will, however, face a statutory obstacle: in 2023, Congress approved legislation requiring either a two-thirds majority in the........

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