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Can Mark Carney Steal Another Seat from Pierre Poilievre?

A Liberal victory in the Quebec by-election could push the Conservatives deeper into crisis

Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced three federal by-elections for Monday, August 31. The government needs to win at least one of these to hold onto its majority status in the House of Commons.

In two of the three seats, the suspense is minimal. It’s unlikely that the Liberals could lose either Beaches—East York or North Vancouver—Capilano, previously held by departed Liberal member of Parliament Nate Erskine-Smith and former Liberal cabinet minister Jonathan Wilkinson, whom Carney recently appointed as Canada’s ambassador to the European Union.

The riding to watch is Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, where Carney created the vacancy when he made the surprise move of appointing incumbent Conservative MP Richard Martel to the Senate. A Liberal win here would serve as proof of Carney’s exceptional popularity in Quebec, not to mention his ability to poach yet another seat from the Conservatives—this time through a by-election rather than a floor crossing.

Ever since Carney became prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party, the Liberals have won every federal by-election except for the one in Battle River—Crowfoot, where Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre ran in August of last year following his loss in Carleton in the April general election. Let’s be honest: the Liberals wanted him to win that one.

But a Liberal victory in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, though very possible, is far from a sure thing. Carney is staking his winning streak on a three-way race that, if the 2025 election is any indication, will be a nail-biter to the very end.

Martel first won the riding in a by-election in 2018. In every election since, the Bloc Québécois........

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