US President Donald Trump calmed plenty of nerves in Israel on Thursday when he announced that the civilian nuclear deal his administration had signed with Saudi Arabia the day before would be retroactively contingent on the Gulf kingdom normalizing relations with the Jewish state.

It certainly removed concerns that a key incentive for Saudi Arabia to join the Abraham Accords was being taken off the table permanently, raising questions about Trump’s commitment to bringing about what would be a historic peace agreement.

Despite that unexpected and positive development, the deal still gives Israel much to fret about.

It presents new proliferation challenges and is another indication that major American decisions are being made across the region without Israel’s input.

As the world’s largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia may not seem an obvious candidate for nuclear power.

“The main motive, when [Saudi Crown Prince] Mohammed Bin Salman first flouted this idea, was to counter Islamic Iran,” said Hussain Abdul-Hussain of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, “that if Iran gets nukes, Saudi will do too.”

However, given the massive damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear program by US and Israeli attacks, it is not clear this is still the main driver.

The need for a civilian nuclear program is in large part the product of economic considerations. Riyadh aims to reduce carbon emissions under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 economic plan, and nuclear power can lower domestic Saudi consumption of oil for electricity and free up more oil for export.

Israel could live with a strictly civilian Saudi nuclear program that does not include uranium enrichment on Saudi soil. But without stringent safeguards, Saudi Arabia — which already has uranium ore reserves — could theoretically use an enrichment facility to produce highly enriched uranium, the fissile material needed for a nuclear weapon.

But the terms of the deal remain unclear.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the agreement could see US companies build a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia.

“Once you have it on your ground, it’s only a question of the level of enrichment,” said Gil Murciano, CEO at Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies. “You develop the knowledge. Slowly you can become, especially a country with resources such as the Saudis, a threshold nation.”

Saudi Arabia is a cosignatory of the NPT, a treaty that stipulates that cosignatories will not develop nuclear weapons. However, the NPT does not mention enrichment.

If the Saudis are eventually allowed to enrich on their own soil, as the Iranians did until 2025, then it stands to reason that other Sunni powers will want similar arrangements. How much more dangerous is a Middle East — especially for Israel — with Egypt, Turkey, and Algeria enriching on their........

© The Times of Israel