In early 2026, the strategic landscape of the Middle East is shaped by a striking convergence: while many regional governments remain deeply distrustful of Iran’s intentions and regional behavior, there is a near-universal assessment that a US military intervention would be profoundly destabilizing. Across the Gulf, the Levant, and Turkey, leaders increasingly view war with Iran not as a solution to regional insecurity, but as a catalyst for economic shock, domestic unrest, and long-term strategic degradation. The following assessment outlines why key regional actors now see intervention as an unacceptable risk.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s position reflects a decisive shift from confrontation toward risk management. Riyadh has signaled a refusal to facilitate US strikes, including denying the use of its airspace, driven primarily by vulnerability rather than sympathy for Tehran. Iran retains the capability to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and to target Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure—most notably Abqaiq, Khurais, and Ras Tanura—with missiles and drones, as demonstrated in 2019. Even limited retaliation would disrupt global energy markets and severely undermine Vision 2030, which depends on foreign investment, tourism, and the perception of internal stability. Saudi leadership also assesses that a regional war would divert financial and political capital from other priorities, including regional diplomacy and post-Gaza reconstruction efforts that Riyadh increasingly frames as part of its leadership role rather than a purely humanitarian endeavor.

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