For decades, Iran sought security by pushing conflict beyond its borders, using missiles, militias, and proxies to impose costs on its adversaries while insulating the Islamic Republic from direct pressure. That logic is now under strain. Protests, growing armed resistance on the periphery, and deepening anxiety within the security establishment are forcing Tehran to devote more of its military and intelligence capacity to defending the regime at home. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps remains formidable, but its strategic problem is changing: Iran can still threaten its enemies abroad, yet its own territory is becoming an increasingly demanding front.

A Security State on the Defensive

The warning signs are no longer confined to isolated incidents. From Iran’s major cities to its Kurdish and Baloch peripheries, the regime faces a widening range of threats that increasingly compete for the attention of its security apparatus.

The IRGC retains a substantial missile arsenal, extensive intelligence networks, and the ability to project power across the Middle East. But Tehran’s problem is no longer concentrated on a single front. The territory—and population—it feels compelled to control is expanding, while the financial and political cost of doing so continues to rise.

Recent changes within the security leadership reflect that pressure. In August, Ahmad Vahidi took command of the IRGC, Mostafa Izadi became his deputy, and Hossein Taeb, the former head of IRGC intelligence, returned to lead the Basij. Mohsen Rezaei was appointed secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and the supreme leader’s representative to that body.

These appointments are more than a reshuffling of familiar names. They consolidate the influence of security hard-liners at a moment when the defense of the clerical regime has become inseparable from........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)