The Houthi advance toward Bab el-Mandeb tests the Makkah Pact, exposes Djibouti and strengthens President Irro’s case in Washington

The fall of Mocha is not simply another battlefield gain in Yemen. It shifts the military pressure south toward Bab el-Mandeb at the same moment that Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan are trying to prove that their new Makkah defence arrangement can deter precisely this kind of escalation. Across the water, Djibouti is suddenly more exposed, Israel has more reason to look toward the African shore of the Red Sea, and President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi Irro is in Washington arguing that Somaliland should be viewed as a strategic partner rather than a diplomatic afterthought. The timing could hardly be more consequential.

Mocha changes the military geometry

Iran-aligned Houthi forces have seized Mocha, the historic port city on Yemen’s western coast, and pushed government-aligned forces farther south. The immediate prize is not Mocha itself. The critical positions are Dhubab and Perim Island, which sit directly on the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb. Reuters reports that government forces have been pushed toward Dhubab while Houthi attacks have also targeted the Hanish Islands.

Geography is very important here. Mocha does not give the Houthis control of Bab el-Mandeb. The strait is roughly 18 miles wide and is divided by Perim Island. But the capture of Mocha gives the Houthis greater territorial advantage on the southern Red Sea coast and brings them closer to the positions from which the strait can be intimidated far more directly.

The Houthis already demonstrated after 2023 that they could impose major costs on commercial shipping with missiles, drones and selective attacks. Territorial expansion toward the strait gives them shorter operating lines, improved coastal surveillance, greater freedom to disperse launch systems, and a stronger ability to threaten traffic moving between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea: Yemen’s Houthis close in on Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

The economic dimension is immediate. Bab el-Mandeb is the southern gateway to the Suez route, carrying oil, fuel and container traffic between Asia, Europe and the Mediterranean. Reuters estimates that about 7 percent of global oil output passed through the strait in June. That figure becomes even more important because Saudi Arabia has relied heavily on Red Sea export routes through Yanbu while traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted.

The region is now confronting an uncomfortable possibility: pressure on both of its great maritime exits at the same time. Hormuz is under stress from the wider U.S.-Iran confrontation. Bab el-Mandeb is again under pressure from the Houthis. Brent crude has already moved above $100 as markets price the danger into energy flows.  Reuters’ explainer on Bab el-Mandeb.

The Makkah Pact meets its first real test

This is exactly the kind of crisis that reveals whether a new security pact is an alliance or a statement of intent. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye signed the Makkah Agreement for Joint Defence in August and followed it with an effort to institutionalize the arrangement. On August 31, their foreign and defence ministers and military chiefs agreed........

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)