In the volatile theater of West Asian geopolitics, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Jerusalem this February was less of a diplomatic courtesy and more of a strategic manifesto. As the specter of a “massive armada” loomed over the Persian Gulf and traditional alliances frayed under the weight of new protectionism, New Delhi and Tel Aviv moved to formalize an “iron alliance” that marks India’s transition from a cautious observer to a principal architect of a new regional order.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to Jerusalem in late February 2026 warrants close and serious scrutiny. It amounted to a forceful declaration of a new security architecture taking shape in the heart of West Asia, what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has branded the “Hexagon Alliance.” Modi’s 48-hour trip marked the culmination of what strategic analysts describe as nearly a decade of carefully cultivated “strategic intimacy” between New Delhi and Tel Aviv.

If Modi’s 2017 trip broke historical ice as the first visit by an Indian prime minister to Israel, his 2026 return cast him in a different role, not merely a global aspirant seeking recognition, but a strategic architect helping redefine the rules of regional stability from the Mediterranean to the Indo-Pacific. The contrast between the two visits is fundamental. In 2017, Modi’s priority was normalization after decades in which India–Israel ties were constrained by moral ambivalence and dependence on Arab partners.

In 2026, the relationship was elevated to what both sides call a “Special Strategic Partnership for Peace, Innovation, and Prosperity.” This was more than a change of label, it signaled an explicit convergence of interests, Israel as a global technology powerhouse, India as a state endowed with scale, human capital, and entrepreneurial energy.

One immediate driver of this recalibration has been India’s deteriorating trade performance amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Official figures show that bilateral trade fell sharply to around US$3.62 billion in fiscal year 2024–2025. The decline was triggered by the Red Sea crisis and attacks near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which disrupted shipping lanes critical to Indian exports.

Shock to Strategic Realignment

 To counter these pressures, Modi and Netanyahu agreed on a set of adaptive measures, including finalizing the first phase of a Free Trade Agreement and integrating India’s Unified Payments Interface (UPI) into Israel’s financial system. These steps are designed to create a trade and payments ecosystem less vulnerable to physical chokepoints at sea. Cooperation will also expand in labor mobility, with India expected to send up to 50,000 additional workers over the next five years to fill gaps in Israel’s construction and service sectors.

Yet the most striking geopolitical development was Netanyahu’s unveiling of the “Hexagon Alliance,” in which India is envisaged as a pivotal player. The concept positions New Delhi at the center of a bloc linking Israel, Greece, and Cyprus with selected Arab, African, and Asian states deemed politically moderate.

Its purpose is narrowly defined: to consolidate a coalition of like-minded governments capable of countering what Israel portrays as a “radical axis”, both Shiite forces led by Iran and segments of Sunni networks tied to extremist movements. For India, embracing this narrative reflects an assertive interpretation of “strategic autonomy,” but it also places New Delhi more openly within West Asia’s fault lines.

The partnership announced during the visit looks decisively forward-looking, moving beyond the traditional buyer–seller model of arms trade. Under a framework for Critical and Emerging Technologies, the two sides will co-develop advanced defense systems, including Israel’s newly inducted high-energy laser weapon, Iron Beam, and expand the use of artificial intelligence in intelligence and battlefield operations.

Cooperation also extends into civilian domains considered strategically vital. A flagship initiative is the India–Israel Innovation Centre for Agriculture (IINCA), aimed at strengthening food security through precision irrigation and agri-tech.

Breaking with Non-Alignment

 Historically, Modi’s approach represents a clear departure from India’s earlier foreign policy posture. Since the Nehru era, New Delhi maintained diplomatic distance from Israel in deference to Palestinian solidarity and to safeguard energy ties with Arab states. Modi has replaced this with what Indian observers term a policy of “de-hyphenation,” enabling India to pursue closer military ties with Tel Aviv without formally downgrading its relationship with Ramallah. This shift has drawn sharp criticism at home, where opposition voices accuse the government of eroding India’s moral standing abroad. Yet politically, Modi appears undeterred.

The broader implications concern India’s identity as a leading voice of the Global South. For decades, New Delhi styled itself as a bridge between developing nations and advanced industrial powers. As India aligns more closely with a security bloc associated with Israel and the United States, however, it risks alienating countries that remain deeply critical of Israeli actions in Gaza. Across parts of Asia and Africa, India’s growing “strategic intimacy” with Israel is seen as a retreat from the anti-colonial principles that once underpinned its diplomacy. Modi’s challenge now is to reassure partners in the developing world that this alliance will not hollow out India’s claim to represent their interests.

The Palestinian question will remain a heavy burden. Modi has offered unequivocal support for Israel’s security since the attacks of October 7, while simultaneously endorsing the UN-backed Gaza Peace Initiative and pledging hundreds of millions of dollars for reconstruction. He was even invited by President Trump to join a proposed “Board of Peace” for Gaza, though India declined to contribute troops to an International Stabilisation Force that lay outside UN authority.

The Price of a New Axis

 South Asian geopolitics will not be immune. Closer New Delhi–Tel Aviv ties will inevitably reshape Pakistan’s strategic calculus. Islamabad views the Hexagon Alliance as a threat to Muslim solidarity and as a counterweight to its own “mutual” defense pact with Saudi Arabia signed last year. These anxieties deepen when set against Israel’s drone and missile technologies, which could grant India a pronounced asymmetric advantage along contested borders.

The timing of Modi’s visit also carried significance amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions. He arrived as Donald Trump deployed carrier strike groups to Arab waters, warning of possible military action unless Tehran accepted a new nuclear deal. The presence of a major world leader in Jerusalem compelled Washington and Tel Aviv to postpone any potential strike, if only briefly, to avoid retaliation risks during a high-profile diplomatic engagement.

None of this has come without cost. Under U.S. sanctions pressure and the threat of a 25 percent tariff imposed by Trump, India formally withdrew from Iran’s Chabahar port project. The liquidation of its US$120 million investment in early 2026 underscored New Delhi’s preference for preserving access to the US$132 billion American market over maintaining a sanctioned gateway to Central Asia.

In short, the New Delhi–Jerusalem axis is emerging as a new gravitational center in an increasingly volatile Middle East. India and Israel are no longer merely trading partners but an evolving strategic alliance likely to shape West Asia for decades to come. Through technological integration and geopolitical audacity, India aims to transform itself from a consumer of security into a producer of regional stability.

The success of Modi’s vision, however, will depend on India’s ability to navigate the turbulence between Washington and Tehran while preserving its moral legitimacy as a leading voice of the Global South, now more skeptical of New Delhi than at any point in recent memory. Modi’s move in Jerusalem represents a high-stakes wager that India’s future lies in deep integration with the world’s innovation hubs, foremost among them Israel, even if this requires a radical redrawing of its traditional diplomatic map. The consequences of that choice are only beginning to unfold.

© The Times of Israel (Blogs)