For decades, Israel’s northern border has been defined by a familiar logic: deterrence, escalation, retaliation, and temporary calm. Yet history has repeatedly shown that military strength can prevent some threats without necessarily creating a stable political future.

That is why Lebanon may represent one of Israel’s most important strategic tests.

The question is not simply how Israel can contain threats from Lebanon. The more consequential question is what kind of Lebanon Israel wants to see on its northern border.

A weak, fragmented and economically devastated Lebanon may appear, at first glance, to pose fewer conventional challenges. In reality, instability creates fertile ground for armed groups, political extremism, economic collapse and foreign intervention. A functioning Lebanese state, by contrast, has a greater capacity to control its territory, protect its population and maintain predictable relations with its neighbors.

This distinction matters.

Israel’s security cannot be separated indefinitely from the political and economic condition of the countries around it. Borders may be defended by armies, but long-term stability is also built through institutions, economic opportunity and........

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