One inappropriate cease-fire is a problem, two is a crisis. The cease-fire with Iran, which President Donald Trump announced on the afternoon of Tuesday 7 April, Eastern Time, promised an immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and nothing less than ‘longterm peace.’ Fewer than nine days later, before midday on Thursday 16 April, the President announced a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon and imminent ‘lasting peace.’ Another five days later, on 21 April, the President extended the cease-fire with Iran ‘until such time as… discussions are concluded,’ which means indefinitely. Barely 48 hours later, the cease-fire in Lebanon was extended for another three weeks. Within a mere 16 days, the President promised a great deal of peace, but obtained only two cease-fire extensions.

In a practical sense, the President was able to use his office and influence to have conversations with Pakistani leaders, in the case of the first cease-fire, and with the leaders of Israel and Lebanon, in the second case. That, and the interruption of military operations, is the sum total of what has so far been achieved by the cease-fires. No opening of the Strait, no resolution of any other of the grave issues which led to war, nor any substantive progress towards these objectives.

Donald Trump has lost his nerve. On the morning of 7 April, while making the ugly threat that “a whole civilization will die tonight,” he made the positive promise that “47 years of extortion” by the Iranian regime will come to an end. The two cease-fires which rapidly followed take him further away from the realisation of that promise, and throw the administration into crisis. The pressure of armed force has been taken completely off both Iran and Hezbollah, which serves as an invitation for both to ignore all and any further threats or entreaties by the President. If instead of bombs, Hezbollah faces Trump’s hope that it will act “nicely and well,” it will certainly retain its weapons and be willing to use them.

The only tool that the administration has retained in its hands is the blockade of Iran. It is a good thing that U.S. Central Command has ‘redirected’ 33 ships, but America’s other actions display a significant degree of hesitance. For example, the oil tanker MV Dorena was merely being escorted by an American destroyer as of 22 April, rather than being seized, a far more appropriate action. Only three ships are known to have been seized by the blockading forces as of the time of writing; the container ship MV Touska on 19 April, the tanker MT Tifani on 21 April and the tanker MT Majestic X a day later.

Especially since the U.S. Navy now has three aircraft carriers in the Middle East for the first time in 23 years, it can and should be doing a lot more. The blockade can be successful, and within a limited period of time, as I have had cause to write. Now, with Iran and its allies under no military pressure, success becomes more difficult, especially as the administration’s energy and commitment has palpably weakened over the last few days. No wonder that the Iranian regime has brazenly seized ships in the Strait. It sent masked thugs on speedboats which America could obliterate using only a tiny fraction of its total power, but the regime correctly calculated that for now, that power is only notional.

The 39 days of war against the Iranian regime were essential, and brought with them considerable military successes, but they were simply not enough. At the critical moment of decision, whether to increase the pressure on the regime and collapse its war economy, or hold back, Trump made two wrong decisions. He has since insisted on them. Naturally, Iran’s Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has advertised the current situation as a triumph, “a result of … the unity of the Axis of Resistance.” A statement is not the same as a fact, but this one will be factually correct if nothing more than a set of additional conversations and meetings follows on from the two cease-fires.

The President’s difficult position is partly not his own responsibility. The attitude of Europe to the war continues to be repugnant, with France continuing to insist that its planning even for post-war demining “doesn’t include the U.S.” Yet, this does not remove the responsibility on Trump to achieve the goal, vital to America’s future, of ending the threat from Iran’s vicious regime. Only a return to war can now achieve this.

Donald Trump has been manoeuvring in the face of absolutely irresponsible pressure from the Democratic Party. Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer insists on calling the war against Iran’s rabid regime a “reckless war of choice” with supposedly “no clear strategy.” The Senator would have the war ‘end,’ as if a war is like a dull film viewing, which can simply be concluded. This is an obscene position completely divorced from reality, yet Democrats insist on it. Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, suggests that the war “has only amplified the dangers posed” by the regime, without so much as pretending to offer an alternative. Shaheen voted to prohibit a military sale to Israel, and was joined by 35 other Democratic Senators.

The majority of Democrats are self-evidently and shamelessly acting out of perceived partisan self-interest, thinking only of the midterm elections due on 3 November this year, and nothing else. The national interests of the United States, the most basic right of Americans not to be victims of predatory regimes like Iran’s, mean absolutely nothing to them.

The reason why the Democrats have forced five votes to withdraw American forces from the war against Iran is not because they would like to see good Constitutional order and a declaration of war. The Congress has not in fact declared war on any country since 4 June 1942, and has declared war on any specific country during only five of the multiple wars America has fought in the quarter of a millennium of its national existence. The Democrats know all this, or should. They cannot care less. They are engaged in partisan isolationism for the sake of immediate political benefit, and to the Devil with everything else.

President Trump is left with a binary choice. Either he lets the Iranian regime do what it wishes, with less and less restraint as the days go by, and lets the Democrats torpedo American and international security because they are interested only in winning seats in November, or he goes back to war. However little the President may wish to return to war, the behaviour of the regime, and of the Democratic party, leaves him with no viable alternative.

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© The Times of Israel (Blogs)