He was forty-one and promoting a book on deals when The Guardian asked him about Iran. Kharg Island, he replied. He would do a number on it. If they ever touched American forces, he would go in and take it.

That was 1988. The island remains, as does he, and the premise hasn’t changed.

When the current war opened in late February, Trump was asked about ground troops. Instead of deploying the standard presidential disclaimer, “no boots on the ground,” he deliberately left the door open, noting he would use them if necessary. Over the following weeks, his rhetoric vacillated wildly. One day, invading was a waste of time because Iran had “lost everything they can lose.” Days later, he threatened to demolish Kharg Island further “just for fun,” only to pivot shortly after, calling it the “crown jewel” and boasting that US strikes had intentionally spared its oil pipelines. “We have it all locked and loaded,” he claimed. “We chose not to do it.”

By June, he was having the entire debate with himself in public. He took to Truth Social to declare that the US would soon seize Kharg and other infrastructure, assuming total control of Iranian oil markets much like it did with Venezuela. Hours later on Fox, he walked it back. His preference was to take the island, he mused, but he wasn’t sure America “had the stomach for it.”

The professionals who plan these operations don’t dispute the feasibility of taking Kharg. Former CENTCOM commander Frank McKenzie argues the Navy can and should seize it, viewing existential pressure as the only language the Iranian regime understands. Retired Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula doesn’t question the tactical capability, but rather the strategic utility. If the goal is halting oil shipments, air power and maritime interdiction can achieve that without putting a single Marine ashore. The military debate isn’t about whether the island can be taken; it’s about the morning after.

Trump’s hesitation about America’s “stomach” reflects a correct reading of his own base. Recent polling shows a solid majority of Americans, including 52 percent of Republicans, oppose sending ground troops to Iran. Yet, there is a crucial caveat, one that forms the political geometry of this entire war: a significant minority (34 percent) would accept deploying a small number of special forces.

The public........

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