The political confrontation between Mogadishu and Puntland’s regional administration has escalated from a chronic governance dispute into something more structurally dangerous. When Puntland President Said Abdullah Deni announced last week that he no longer recognizes Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud as Somalia’s legitimate president, he was not merely lobbing a rhetorical grenade at a political rival. He was signaling that Somalia’s federal architecture may be approaching a breaking point, at precisely the moment when the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor demand stability rather than fragmentation.

The comparison to Somaliland is instructive but incomplete. Somaliland declared independence in 1991, exploiting the collapse of the central state, and has since built functioning institutions that have earned it grudging if unrecognized legitimacy. Puntland has not gone that far, and Somali analysts are right to note that the region still nominally participates in federal structures. But the trajectory matters as much as the current position. Puntland is developing independent security forces, withholding cooperation from Mogadishu on multiple dossiers, and now lending political cover to the opposition “Council for Somalia’s Future,” which is calling for weekly protests in Mogadishu beginning in June. The infrastructure of a parallel state is being assembled, even if no declaration of........

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