The Trump administration is a kleptocracy. That alone offers hope for an end to the Iran war

April 1, 2026 — 5:00am

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US President Donald Trump’s decisions in the Third Gulf War seem erratic and puzzling, but many of them make sense when you follow the money trail.

There is a robust explanation for his stop-start behaviour: Trump and his associates have significant financial investments in pro-US Gulf states, and these may be ruined in an Iranian retaliatory campaign. There are more than 400 desalination plants in the Gulf, which are responsible for more than 40 per cent of drinking water used by the United Arab Emirates, 70 per cent used by Saudi Arabia and 90 per cent by Kuwait. Iranian attacks on this infrastructure would shatter the Gulf states’ economic prosperity, and with it, billions of dollars that the Trump organisation stands to gain. Modern life there would be unsustainable.

This is why Trump keeps extending his deadlines on Iran. Since the killing of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on February 28, Trump has paused strikes on several occasions. On March 22, he threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants within 48 hours if it didn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On March 23, hours before the deadline expired, he announced a five-day delay, citing “very good and productive conversations” with unnamed Iranian officials. On March 26, as the world held its breath, he ordered another pause, this time for 10 days........

© The Sydney Morning Herald