Military strength is usually measured in terms of aircraft carriers, missiles and warplanes. Yet history repeatedly reminds us that geography can be just as decisive. The confrontation in the Gulf has reinforced a strategic truth that energy-importing nations have long preferred to ignore: a narrow stretch of water can wield influence far beyond the battlefield.

The Strait of Hormuz has never been merely another shipping lane. It is the principal artery connecting the world’s richest hydrocarbon reserves to global markets. For decades, discussions about Iran centred on uranium enrichment, sanctions and nuclear diplomacy. The recent conflict has shifted attention to a different reality. Tehran’s most potent strategic asset may well be its ability to threaten the uninterrupted movement of energy. That distinction matters. A nuclear programme can be constrained through inspections, diplomacy or military strikes.

Geography cannot. Even if Iran’s conventional military capabilities are degraded, its coastline, missile positions, drones, mines and fast attack craft continue to impose uncertainty on commercial shipping. Insurance premiums rise, freight........

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