Pakistan has only itself to blame for its current imbroglio. While the world was aware of the intent of the US and Israel over Iran and braced for deployment of the second carrier group for hostilities to commence, the failed marshal assumed that this was the right time to teach Afghanistan a lesson. He ordered airstrikes in Afghanistan two days prior to the US launch of ‘Operation Epic Fury’ in Iran. With Afghanistan refusing to accept Pakistan’s conditions, there are limited chances of the war coming to an early end. Middle East nations, which had mediated the previous conflict last October are in no position to do so again as they are themselves facing Iranian strikes.

It was Pakistan which broke the ceasefire with Kabul, extended in the last round of talks in Turkey in December last year. Its aerial strikes targeted civilian populations in multiple Afghan cities resulting in killing of inno cents. According to the International Organization of Migration and UNHCR, over 70,000 Afghan civilians have been displaced by the ongoing conflict. The war continues along the Durand Line. Kabul has also begun targeting Pakistan with drone strikes including at its crucial Nur Khan airbase. Simultaneously, strikes by the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan) and Baloch freedom fighters on Pakistani security forces continue. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan have been making claims of success and casualties caused to the other, none of which can be verified. Pakistan has also been impacted by Operation Epic Fury launched by the US.

The US-Israel operation commenced with targeting of the Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Khamenei, a respected Shia leader, in multiple coordinated airstrikes. It was known that Iran would strike back with all possible means and since it lacks the capability to hit the US mainland, all US and allied bases in the Middle East would be legitimate targets. Iran’s strength lies in its drones and missiles and it exploited them. Iran was expected to exploit its strategic location to block the Straits of Hormuz impacting global shipping, largely oil. Dozens of ships have been stranded because of the war. Iran announced partial opening of the straits; however movement has yet to commence. Global oil and LNG prices have witnessed a spurt.

Nations have begun reassessing their oil procurement options, but Pakistan, which survives on the largesse of Riyadh, has been severely impacted. To manage this shortfall, Islamabad has enhanced petrol and diesel prices by Rs 55 per litre, adding to public anger. Many petrol pumps are running dry. Shortage of oil will also impact Pakistan’s ability to launch military operations. There are also unconfirmed reports of reduction in financial support by Saudi Arabia due to financial mismanagement within Pakistan. An added issue is the defence agreement with Saudi Arabia. Field Marshal Asim Munir was summoned to Riyadh and met the Saudi Defence Minister on possible Pakistan support for the Kingdom. It is reported that Saudi Arabia has insisted that in case attacks from Iran or its proxies in the region, including the Houthis, continue, Riyadh would desire that Pakistan join the conflict in support of the US.

All this while operations continue with Afghanistan. While attacking Iran would win favour with Trump and Riyadh, it would open a new front. Any strike on Iran would imply missile barrages on Pakistan. It has yet to recover from the damage caused by India in Operation Sindoor and would face another set of losses, which its economy may not sustain. In case the Houthis strike Saudi Arabia in support of Iran, Pakistan would be forced to deploy troops in the Kingdom, stretching its resources even further. Pakistan also failed to comprehend the impact within the country on the death of Ayatollah Khamenei. Protests broke out in Lahore, Rawalpindi and POK against the US, which is currently Munir’s most loved ally. In Lahore, protestors attempted to storm the US consulate and were shot by security forces and US marines guarding the consulate.

Compare this to India where thousands protested in J and K and in other parts of the country mourning the death of the Ayatollah and there was not a single incident of violence. POK, which is largely Shia, had peaceful protests, but the Pakistani military had other plans, and opened fire. Over 30 Shias were killed in POK in firing by Pakistani security forces. Pakistan immediately imposed curfew and clamped a media shutdown, hoping to hide true figures, which could be far higher. The region has not received any food stocks or medical supplies in recent days.

This has added to tensions. Simultaneously, there are reports of infiltration attempts in different parts of J and K. It appears that Pakistan has recouped the losses India imposed on it last year. It is now time for India to take Pakistan to task. It must immediately commence diplomatic and military actions against Islamabad. After all, the defence and home ministers have mentioned in every public gathering that POK belongs to India. Unless they question Pakistan on its actions, and support the population of POK, their words have little meaning. As a first, Pakistan must be questioned for the brutal killing of peacefully protesting Shias by the Pakistani army in POK. India must seek an intervention as POK is Indian territory, illegally occupied by Pakistan.

India must also insist on sending food and medical aid to residents of POK, adding to Pakistan’s humiliation. Secondly, India has kept the LoC quiet, providing Pakistan the confidence to continue infiltrating terrorists. With Pakistan engaging Afghanistan, facing crucial shortfalls in finance and oil, and added pressure to participate in the defence of Saudi Arabia, every attempt at infiltration must be responded by activating the LoC with artillery and missile fire, destroying Pakistani posts, compelling it to draw back forces from its western borders.

Finally, Pakistan must be warned that any terrorist action or infiltration attempt, irrespective of casualties, will be met with the recommencement of Operation Sindoor. India, as compared to Pakistan, has sufficient reserves of oil and resources to pursue a conflict. Unlike Pakistan, it has no additional defence commitments nor does it have an ongoing conflict on its borders. Pakistan’s ultimate threat is its nuclear bogey, which today is meaningless. Historically, Pakistan has always exploited India’s patience, it is time India exploits Pakistan’s predicament.

(The writer is a retired Major-General of the Indian Army.)

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