‘Russian troop movements near Ukraine border prompt concern in US, Europe’ ran the headline in the Washington Times on 30 October 2021, exactly five years ago today. Below came the shocking revelation that as many as 90,000 troops had massed close to the border with Ukraine, together with a substantial build-up of tanks and artillery. The article quoted Russian expert Michael Kofman, who expressed what the world was now wondering:

The point is: It is not a drill. It doesn’t appear to be a training exercise. Something is happening. What is it?

The point is: It is not a drill. It doesn’t appear to be a training exercise. Something is happening. What is it?

The build-up came towards the end of a year of heightened tensions between Russia and the West. In the spring, there had been a similar massing of Russian troops close to Ukraine, before Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu withdrew (or at least appeared to withdraw) the troops and weaponry in late April. The same month, in his state of the nation address, Vladimir Putin ominously warned the West against crossing a ‘red line’ with Russia and of the ‘asymmetrical, rapid and harsh’ response that would follow. 

Five years on, the Ukrainian war has been a great revealer of people and players

Five years on, the Ukrainian war has been a great revealer of people and players

In summer came the Belarusian migrant crisis, reportedly engineered by the country’s president Aleksandr Lukashenko. Thousands of Middle Eastern migrants were flown into the country, then allegedly encouraged to break through illegally into the EU (a provocation, Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki assured us, which had ‘its mastermind in Moscow’).  

 ‘I think you have to step back and look at this past year holistically,’ said Kofman, ‘and if you do, you will know that the Russian tone and messaging on Ukraine has changed dramatically.’

Amidst a host of eerie aerial photographs of the........

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