One of the most serious issues in the well-filled in-tray of freshly endorsed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is Taiwan, which China claims as its own sovereign territory, and the lamentable state of Sino-Japanese relations. Takaichi provoked fury with comments in the Japanese parliament in November when she stated that were China to attack Taiwan, it would be interpreted as a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, implying a military response could follow.

Under the terms of its constitution, Japan is severely limited in its military options but Takaichi appeared to be preparing more solid ground with her phrasing. A 2015 law changed the constitution allowing Japan to retaliate if the country faced a “life-threatening” situation. Frank Hoffman writing in the Medium states that her “particular term of art” was legalistic and calculated and far more than a “rhetorical flourish.”

The importance of Taiwan to Japan is hard to overstate. A successful Chinese takeover would mean control of vital shipping routes through which pass essential resources, most significantly LNG (liquefied natural gas). Japan, in its post-Fukushima energy posture, relies on LNG for around a third of its needs. Reserves held in storage tanks in supply terminals amount to just over a month’s supply. A Chinese blockade of sea routes around Taiwan could seriously........

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