What if I told you that seven million households in this country ‘can’t afford a toothbrush’? It wouldn’t pass the smell test. But what if I told you the figure came from a highly respected research organisation?

Treating contested statistics as national emergencies is a poor basis for making public policy

Treating contested statistics as national emergencies is a poor basis for making public policy

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has concluded that 7.4 million ‘low-income families’ have been unable to afford essential items at some point during the past six months. It says this is the highest figure since it began conducting the survey in 2021. Alfie Stirling, the economist behind the research, has described the findings as a ‘national emergency’. But is that what the evidence shows?

It has certainly been presented that way. When Nick Ferrari, the LBC presenter, asked the economist, ‘7.4 million households in this country, Mr Stirling, can’t afford a 50p toothbrush?’, he agreed, replying: ‘That is precisely why I think it should be an emergency, and actually the government is recognising that with policies they’re trying to put out.’

When Ferrari questioned whether the number passed the smell test, Stirling responded: ‘Are you suggesting these numbers aren’t right?’ That made me look at the research for myself. The........

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